@GARETH78 and
@acwbagnall tend to be our guru's on longer term SP targets and turning points, so forecasting whether it will get back to 976 is probably better directed at them. I tend to be much shorter range - like minutes to a couple of days. I see why you picked 976 because that is where the 200 SMA is. Of course if it takes a couple of weeks to get there that price would probably be higher, but if we phrase that is "will it get back to the 200SMA" then...
In all honesty I just don't know at the moment. There is so much crisis crap happening ATM and nowhere I look do I see even slightly competent leadership, or even competent alternative leadership in governments or soon to be in government in any of the key countries likely to impact our SP. Major corporations and institutions, the media and almost everyone else that might impact us does not seem to have the little guy's interests in hand. It is like the entire power structure is working against us. I don't see anything on the horizon over the next few months likely to generate confidence, happiness, excitement and thus create a buoyant mood to drive the share market to new heights of extravagance. So... in that vein while I don't see it getting there in the next few days I could see it getting there sometime over the next few months.
Gareth & I have been trying to decide where we are in the EW cycle. Until a week ago we were in Wave 5 of a major cycle. And we were in wave 5 of that wave 5 (we believed). Of that wave 5 we were in wave 3. In other words we had a wave 4 down and another wave 5 up to go, but that blow out to 1420+ may have quickly taken us from wave 3 through to wave 5, or we might have just had a fractal and still be yet to finish that final wave. The problem is it looks like it has come too far down for that to be the case, and we could be in an ABC correction - in which case we might get one more day of this lift, maybe 2 and then resume the retreat, or the first view might be correct and we are about to swing up for one more stab over 1420. The fact is that, whereas the EW model has worked pretty much like a clock over the last couple of years, now it is all twisted and we (or at least I) am not sure. It seems we are in one of those periods where FA really does dominate.... which probably means we are in a correction.
We really need the Guru's to spread their wisdom at this point.
I see that we have hit the 50% fib 1143 of the last wave sequence retrace and it would be reasonable for it to go all the way to the 78% fib 996, but could at the 50%, so...
On the face of it we haven't had enough fractals down during the correction (if it is an end of major cycle correction) so, 50% might be too optimistic.
Anyway we need Gareth and acwbagnal to say somethiung that actually makes sense rather than me with my tiny 5 minute horizon.
