The problem is you gave an opinion not backed up with any technical analysis, like most of your comments on this thread unfortunately. I would suggest if you want people to take you seriously to post some actual analysis instead of 1 line opinions, and we of course welcome any bearish
technical analysis, because it shows us that you may indeed know a thing or two instead of being full of hot air. iirc when we were at 0.40ish you called 0.34 without anything to support your call, while technical analysis at the time indicated a run to highs and onto the 0.645 zone. You needed a drop of 6c to show you had some sort of idea, TA at the time needed a rise of 24.5c - we got 22.5c. To me it comes as no surprise that your comments are met with the reaction they are.
So let's have a look at IMU. I'm going to stick to the longer term view as this will likely be my last analysis until February. I'm off on my honeymoon for 2 months next week and I won't be updating any shorter term time frames.
There's a few things to keep in mind.
- As always, this is simply probability not a guarantee
- Fundamental changes always take priority over technicals
- We've got an emerging macro fundamental situation evolving (omicron) that could potentially have a broad market impact. I would suggest that if it turns out that omicron is no worse than delta, albeit different, then any negative market reaction will quickly recover. On the other hand if it is turns out that vaccines prove less effective, there is evidence of significantly more virulence or higher mortality then we could be looking at a broad sell off. How's this will directly affect IMU share price remains to be seen.
- ASX200 rebalance announcement on Dec 10th, followed with entry on 17th if we qualify.
- Numerous other high impact news events
- End of year/Christmas selling
Weekly
We didn't get to touch the 0.645 zone which I expected from that last run. I suggest that this could be indicative of the strength of the zone so it will take some work to get through it. We've been testing a fairly solid support at the previous high around the 0.51 area. 0.495 will probably be the bottom of this support zone, a break under it (possibly due to the broader Omicron pressure) will bring into play existing S&R levels around 0.46 & 0.425. The weekly e21(yellow) comes in around the 0.46 level - this is a massive support. I wouldn't expect to see it break on a whim. I don't want to even see 0.46, and technically there is no reason for it, but larger fundamentals are at play now so we will see. Having said that, this retrace over the last couple of weeks is actually nothing out of the ordinary despite what others have suggested. Previous analysis while we were in the 60's called for a pullback exactly as we are seeing here. There is nothing ominous in the way it has happened, the volume or anything else that I can see. To me this chart looks like it is undergoing a very healthy stock standard retrace that was called a couple of weeks ago. Keep in mind though the undercurrent of the macro fundies.
If current levels hold as support we should at least test current highs again on positive news, or with a lack of fundamental change sometime early February (unless we have an asx200 entry. Often see buying pressure build over the announcement week for new inclusions, however I've not specifically looked at the December rebalance. Staying above the current levels (at least on the weekly, preferably the daily) will be key.
Daily
Nothing encouraging for a bear here. There's a new bullish divergence confirmed now, and the e55 comes in at the 0.495 level to add significant weight to the support there. If there wasn't a new covid variant on everyone's mind I'd be inclined to call this the bottom ready for the next leg up.
The only other thing that surprises me is how emotionally attached to the ups and downs so many here are, like PilbaraBoy who highlights that to everyone so regularly. Funny in that particular case the very thing that could significantly ease the stress of the downs that is so upsetting is the thing that he consistently bags out. Decent technical analysis. I sleep fine anyway.
Hopefully my next analysis, probably sometime in Feb, will be talking about solid support base at 0.74 not at 0.495.
Enjoy
(20min delay)