Running discussion on SP, page-69920

I dont disagree with you however the net short position will be closed on receipt of mining license.

Afterall, shorters have taken this on board as fear and uncertainty is a great opportunity for a shorter. A more rational shorters would look at fundamentals however AVZ always had the fundamentals should the sovereign risk be negated.

Rationally the ML should only drive us closer to 5b or 44% higher than here. My target was 1.60

However given the lack of sell depth and the impending BFS to which alot of investors SHOULD hold out for - I do not think shorters will have sufficient order depth to close their positions and this could take us to irrational $2 compliments of short-sighted fear mongering shorters.

At present there are 140m shorts - mostly opened on March 18th (ASX 200 entry @ 92c) - they doubled down to bring us back to this price but with this news, they are likely to give up hope of ever making a profit on the short. So assuming these are insto's (as seen when we entered asx 200), then its a unemotional exit of positions against an sell side depth of 10m. They will need 14x the sell side order book to close this position and keeping in mind there will be reluctant sellers on account of BFS, its not going to be easy.. If we open at 1.20 - 1.30 - Will insto be holding their massively in the red short position? What for? Its a short squeeze and the biggest question now is Who is the bravest shorter here? Who will be the last to close and how bad a loss will it be? Shorters are brave in this instance


In either instance, the ML gives us certainty and therefore holding positions is the right outcome irrespective of price.