LYC (ASX) Deciphering Lynas

Originally posted by mikaj: ↑

Update with February data ahead of the QR (prob 3 weeks away):

-As last month, I'll first show how we are tracking with the rolling Q revenue (white line, left axis, AUD, Feb inclusive), rolling Q NdPr price (blue line, right axis, AUD, March inclusive), and monthly average LYC sp (right axis divided by ten, AUD, March inclusive).

Rolling Q revenue and NdPr continues to point north, while sp is currently lagging a bit.

-Concentrate deliveries. I have previously shown that we in December/January received a huge increase in concentrate delivery at LAMP. This has continued in February:

(note: no y-axis, use more as a relative guide)

-NdPr price. In terms of the price of our main product, we have remained at very healthy levels, albeit a relatively small pull-back (which was anticipated for March):

Average NdPr price for March was Au$197 (down from Au$202 in Feb).

In addition, sale price for the ~20% NdPr I've 'tracked' (Feb inclusive):
Left axis AUD, white line av. selling price, orange line monthly NdPr price shifted two months forward):

I think the sale price data in Jan/Feb likely have a bit of an overlap, meaning I think the data got ahead of itself in Jan, resulting in a visually lower February. Averaging things out, I think we are still following the 2 month delayed NdPr price 'model'.

My overall take echos my previous assessment: numbers in the upcoming QR will result in many 'analysts' having to re-calibrate their calculators/spreadsheets. I'm thinking ~1,500t NdPr produced, around $280-300m revenue. Likely 55-60% profit margin..

IMO, H2 22 full next rate.

Not investment advice.. DYOR.

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Update through March:

-First a view of how we are tracking with the rolling Q revenue (white line, left axis, AUD, March inclusive), rolling Q NdPr price (blue line, right axis, AUD, April inclusive), and monthly average LYC sp (right axis divided by ten, AUD, April inclusive).

As you can see, sp has become completely un-hinged from both revenue and NdPr (quarterly price)..

-Concentrate deliveries. As expected now, we have entered a new 'norm' in terms of concentrate deliveries to LAMP:

I won't post this data again unless I see something change. For now, we are delivering high volume of concentrate to support NEXT production levels.

-NdPr price.

While we saw some 'weakness' in the NdPr price through March (expected) and April (partially lockdown driven, IMO), we remain at a very healthy price level. We seem to have stabilised for now. Demand remains very strong.

-Sale price for the ~20% NdPr I've 'tracked' (March inclusive):
Left axis AUD, white line av. selling price, orange line monthly NdPr price shifted two months forward):

Our pricing model is (understandably) confidential, but the data seems to be following the two-month delayed monthly NdPr price. Rolling quarterly NdPr price is an option, or perhaps some hybrid of these.. Either way, money keeps flowing in.

Also, I think I saw a question relating to China and lockdown influence on our sales (@G-Zilla)? I track this quarterly, and can provide the info bellow:

Left axis, USD, Right axis, China % of quarterly revenue

This is quarterly data, while recent lockdowns have affected March/April. Looking monthly, all I can say is that March was our highest ever month in terms of revenue from China. I doubt it has had any effect in April either.. We mainly ship SEG to China, and they are very hungry for it.. Personally, I really can't wait for us to separate the heavies instead of sending away the SEG. I don't care where.. just do it.

All-in-all, we are looking exceptionally strong. In the current and coming quarters, we are looking at ~1,800t NdPr (+/- 50t I guess), with a big expansion up our sleeves. My gut feeling (and reading between the lines of some of the comments from AL), is we have some big news coming up.

While my sp $15 prediction post QR was off, I think it only was the timing that was wrong (in part due to China-covid and Ukraine). While we likely will break $1b in revenue this FY, I strongly believe we will break $1b in profit next FY (we are already at a run-rate to break that).

Not intended as financial advice, purely factual data presented with personal opinions. DYOR.