Massive opportunity cost, page-171

We welcome someone having a negative opinion for sure. I was the first to predict this could be 10C and here we are now arguing whether this could be 5C. This company had way too many cheerleaders. In a way I take that as a contrarian signal. I think people are too bearish on the equity now.

If you look at the probabilities, this has a higher chance of reaching 5C than 50C. I feel that we are just at the start of a bear market or not even halfway through the bear market. It can easily correct to the downside. However, it is unlikely to stay there long term because we are looking at share price at pre-pandemic levels. If it reaches that I might buy this for the future dividend.

Although this is being treated as a tech company, this is ultimately a lender and a company which caters to a few people who are not financially disciplined. I would never take a car loan or a personal loan ever in my life even if there is a gun to my head. In this difficult period with higher interest and inflation, I would argue it is a great space to be if you manage risk. Although I have zero regard for their capital allocation capability, from the risk management perspective, I could not fault the management.

I think since people who we lent are "high creditworthy" people and other lenders are less disciplined, this gives us more opportunity now. Let's hope one or two competitors find them self in trouble. This is the same reason I like CCP. These are the times I usually make lots of money.

There is more long term upside than downside for this equity at current share price.

Changed my sentiment to long term buy and short term hold.

Good luck.