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edshann

2,370 Posts.

715

06/05/22

08:39

Post #: 61241869
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Originally posted by edshann: ↑

I was interested in your statement that there would be 40K of inventory available to sell during the period of no production.

The Annual Report page 14 says:

" Total HMC stocks increased only marginally from the end of CY2020 to the end of CY2021 and
remain near minimal working levels of approximately 50kt (including HMC storage pad bases)."

The latest guidance has CY2022 production of 200-220 kt and sales of 220-250 kt.

That implies a further run down in inventory (of 20-30 kt?), presumably to the minimal working levels.

I do not see where your 40kt of inventory comes from.

They could run stocks down completely so there are none awaiting shipment or in transit, but that hole would then need to be filled from new production before any sales could be made. There would thus still be a gap in sales.

What is your take?

Expand

I should add that the graph on page 14 of the quarterly, though not very clear, seems to suggest a production gap of between one and two quarters in early 2023. So even assuming no delays that suggests the sales gap could be up to 70kt based on 2022 sales rates.

IMA Price at posting: 21.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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Last 8.8¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $98.74M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
9.1¢	9.4¢	8.8¢	$37.32K	408.9K

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
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2	20298	0.073

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0.093	3020	1
0.094	129685	3
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0.100	205000	2
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