Well, here's the thing. We are in May and by far the majority of the time it falls mid May through mid June, so I think it has further to fall. It might get up to 1108, but it could easily go down to 988 if it copies the US overnight. My trend line had it bottoming at 1066 today, but it went , so far. In the light of the US market overnight, that was actually pretty good. Anyway, I think it has further to fall. I am not sure where it goes to before it finds a bottom, though, or rather the numbers I have based on a retrace of the full 5 wave rise seem ridiculous and I don't really want to post them. The major cycle that we are ending now started around 237 and ran to 1420, so a 50% fib retrace gives us circa 833, a 61% retrace is circa 692 and a 78% retrace is 518. I like 833, but going back historically the wave 5 retraces tend to be more than 50% of the relevant cycle. This is why I am not posting at the moment. On the plus side, we are probably in the C leg of the corrective wave but that might be only the 3rd leg of the current impulse down, so 833 might be possible.
It's kind of a mixture of "I am not sure" and "I don't really want to say what I suspect". It wouldn't take much to reverse it back up, but it really needs something in the FA space to improve. China coming out of never-ending lock down, a certain foreign President, and his entire incompetent party being raptured, or some Eastern Europeans and their Eurasian cot-mate agreeing to share the rattle - any of these might give us a burst, but I don't think any of that is likely in the next month. Heck, even just being able to buy some fertilizer and better still a finding a new source of urea would make a difference at this point.
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