this is all fairly easy to figure out with a spreadsheet and setting certain variables on FX, commodity prices, volume etc. I’ve got models on most of my positions with exactly this. The information on costs and margins is all available through presentations and quarterly reports. My suggestion is do this.
Another point to note is the net debt of our major miners and how that profile has changed over the last 5 years with booming commodities. It’s a game changer and I don’t think the market is appreciating the flexibility of their balance sheets nor factoring it in their share prices. This leaves scope for high payout ratios or simply a major acquisition.
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