LSF 1.37% $2.87 l1 long short fund limited

$3.00 NTA, page-15

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    "Overall, high inflation is probably here to stay for a long time and might well go much higher. In my opinion, interest rates will be forced higher than most "experts" are currently predicting."

    All good except for this bit IMO. What has changed over the last few decades is the level of indebtedness of both the consumer and central governments. The degree of tightening required to place financial stress on both has decreased in line with indebtedness.
    Since 2005 US Federal Government debt has risen from around US$8T to closer to US$28T
    The average household debt has gone vertical over the last few decades.

    Australian households are among the most indebted in the world and the start of interest rate increases by the Reserve Bank will generate “a big potential problem” for many people and the wider economy, a University of New South Wales researcher predicts.

    Chris Martin, a senior research fellow in UNSW’s City Futures Research Centre, said data from the Bank of International Settlements showed total credit to Australian households amounts to about 120% of annual GDP.

    I agree that some of the excesses that have been created need to be unwound, but don't think it will happen this cycle. Borrowers cant withstand it and their spending habits, and along with it GDP, will collapse first. Only question now will be whether we can fend off a technical recession.

    Next cycle you may get your wish, but IMHO I think there will be some balance sheet repairs and adjustments that will need to occur first and some of the consumerism excesses unwound.

 
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