IXR 20.0% 0.6¢ ionic rare earths limited

Ann: Makuutu Rare Earths Project Scoping Study, page-402

  1. 3,715 Posts.
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    Just went back to our discussion, your (Post #: 52813906) last year,

    "They only give an EBITDA for the overall 11 years, that's AUD 1.71 bill * 0.6 (current share) * 0.85 (worst case gov 15% free carry) = 872 mill, or $79.2 mill p.a..., let's assume $80m. At a PE of 15 it'd be $1.2b MC, at 30 it'd be $2.4b. Undiluted (rough numbers 3.5b SOI) that'd be a theoretical SP in production between $0.34-$0.68 SP. Let's assume we issue 25% more shares, that brings the SP at that MC to a $0.255-$0.51. Now working backwards, if we say fair value right now is 15% of "production value", then we get somewhere between $0.038-0.077. It's been trading in that range for a while now, currently we're in the very low end of that range."

    One point that needs to be corrected however ~ Your SP calculation using a 30:1 PE ratio is fine, but it should be based on Net Earnings, not EBITDA.

    If we assume that Ugandan Tax will be at least 25%, Depreciation 10% and Amortisation 5% ? your thoughts ?

    If these numbers are close to being correct, it would put IXR's current SP at between 3c-6c by your calculations. The current price is towards the top of that range.
 
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