Firstly, to the haters, if you're going to throw a tantrum about my answer to this question, don't read it.
I'm not expecting to have any interest in buying until immediately after the next quarterly (even then probably not). Before then I would only be looking at the TA, and at this stage I can't see 13c failing (perhaps it might touch 12.5c). If it does fall through support I'd be watching closely mainly out of curiosity, seeing it as a case study rather than an immediate opportunity, but I think that would only happen in response to something external, so I'd have to take that into account. If I happen to have some spare funds available in mid to late July and I can buy in for around 13.5-14c and I know I'll be closely watching the market constantly until the quarterly is out, I'll possibly consider taking some quick, easy money on the expectation rally but that's a lot of ifs. Based on fundamentals I just wouldn't be interested in TNT until after the quarterly; there are too many good opportunities elsewhere right now.
As the recent quarterly showed, the part of the market watching TNT is not quick to grasp the content of its quarterlies, so if you can avoid the rose-coloured glasses and read the report quickly and act decisively if necessary, there's an opportunity (assuming you're watching, quick and not biased).
I'm really not sure what to expect from the next one. My guess is gross revenue will be good but costs will be something between nasty and mildly concerning. If costs are as low as some of the bulls here are expecting it'll be happy days for holders, but I'll wait and see. If revenue is modest or worse, run straight for the door, but I doubt we'll see that.
I'm tentatively guessing prices next quarter will be higher than the rest of this quarter, but not dramatically so. Probably too early to call though.
If you don't have anything else you want to invest in (which would be crazy with all the bargains around right now), TNT isn't the worst place to have your money parked at around 13.5c, but I wouldn’t be buying. If I was holding now I'd be looking to get out at the top of where I expect the channel to form. Of course, I'd constantly keep an open mind and be ready to change tack as soon as the situation warranted it - 'backflipping' as my resident haters call it, but hey, if reacting to a dynamic situation rather than playing 'deer staring at the headlights' makes me a profit, I don't care if I get called a gymnast.
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