I'll let
@ozgoldtrader answer on his or her own behalf, but I have a view on this so I'll do what we do on HotCopper and chip in with my opinion even though you didn't ask...
In short I believe there is a risk that the price will drop if the takeover fails, whether through an adverse expert opinion or being rejected by the members. There will be a lot of holders who bought below 11.5c, who were keen on a quick (or belated) gain who will be keen to capture as much of that gain as they can. I expect to see the 11c line wiped instantly, and there's no telling how far down the selling will go. At present there are almost no buyers below 11c. But I don't expect the market to stabilise anywhere near the 8c mark.
ResApp's value proposition and market context are substantially different now to what they were before the announcement was made:
| Before 11-Apr-2022 | Since 11-Apr-2022 |
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| 1 | The company was desperately short of cash with only 2 quarters of funding left. A capital raising at roughly 7c was imminent. | The company has received $3m in additional funds with a further $1m available as milestones are reached. |
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| 2 | The technology was easily dismissed as buzz and fluff. | The technology's value has been acknowledged by a major global pharmaceutical company. |
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| 3 | The company has taken many years to reach a point where its globally and historically novel technology is just entering the commercial phase. Nobody felt any real sense of urgency to get on board for the Covid19 test. | The licence agreement with Pfizer is going to plant a bomb under the company's seats. They're going to be under constant pressure to play their part in the plan to complete development of the Covid19 test. |
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| 4 | With no fundamental analyst coverage there was no objective guidance – only a few meaningless TA-based projections from MorningStar and similar – on what the company was worth. | There's now a much better understanding of the company's addressable market and potential. |
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Also, if all goes according to plan, the market will have a much better appreciation of where any future takeover offers will have to be pitched.
