MAY 3.13% 3.3¢ melbana energy limited

Ann: Drilling of Zapato-1 exploration well commenced, page-63

  1. 2,652 Posts.
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    Hey Mech, on the question of fair value I went and did a little digging in trying to understand why the SP was stubbornly anchored around the 9-10c mark.

    And on the basis of what is tangible we have only the EV/2P ratio to go by & that is based on what is known so far..

    That McD's have signed off on 35m barrels, noting MAY found it MAY logged it and for all intent they are hardly going to lose it from here & as AP said "it should be noted this carries more weight than a prospective resource"

    Taking away the earlier hype that was the Alameda high pressure, moveable hydro carbon, gas flaring rocket, then 8 is a very reasonable figure for EV multiple.

    And as you have it 35'000'000 x 8 equals $280'000'000..

    Roughly where the SP has been hanging around that figure, give or take, for some time one could say since the called TD and AP called last drinks.

    The other aspect of that equation when tested against prospectivity also aligns.. Whereby early estimates floating around of potential Enterprise Value put MAY at circa $650'000'000?

    279'000'000 (high est Alameda) x .3 (Working interest) x 8 equals you guessed it $669'000'000

    So for me, yeah the eat came out of things and ergo the SP fell back to a fair est of what is locked in...

    Which means that

    A.. Zapato may bring the heat back in &

    B Resource upgrades from either Mid or lower section of the original drill program & which are pending will establish higher floors for SP baseline..

    And then you have beehive ??

    Opinion only GLTAH 8tey

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    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4368/4368731-205761a3b0b4ddb96037790f0d38c79b.jpg



 
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