SYA 0.00% 3.1¢ sayona mining limited

Ann: Trading Halt, page-322

  1. 9,037 Posts.
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    GS are predicting LT spod at $1,100 and Carbonate at $15,000 as per below:

    Carbonate production allowing for recoveries takes approx 8t of SC6 + conversion costs of c. $3k. So call all in cost $11,600. So your margin uplift is about $3,400

    At NAL production rate you'd make about 20kt of Carbonate a year so based on estimate uplift that is around $70m extra profit vs just selling spod. Would be a $400m+ capex for that size refinery so that's likely a 7-8 year payback

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4373/4373806-e919ca28600516b57928cecd45f09c42.jpg

    As for other arguments NAL will be lucky to be in production by mid 2023 (I mean you were supposed to have a DFS 3 months ago and you just got a PFS, still need DFS, financing FID and construction to happen)

    So based on GS numbers spod price over the PLL contract period is likely to be average something like $2,500. 113kt at $900 and 50kt at $2,500 works out to an average price of $1,390 which is barely above the PFS pricing.

    Anyone ramping massive conservativeness built into this PFS is kidding themselves.
 
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