gold, page-109679

Here is an interesting discussion about the forthcoming US economic recession based on how hawkish or dovish Powell will be. We have seen the new normal being at least a 50bpt rate rise with the Feds or BH warning that the targeted IR is whatever from here higher. With the current inflation not reflected in the LT bond yields sitting under 3% a real neutral yield I think will not be sustainable at all.

So my question is that if there is a hard landing and IR is emulating the Volker style of crushing inflation bearing in mind that not 2 scenario are the same, will the recession be short lived? Currently the debate is also raging whether this inflation is demand or supply side triggered bearing in mind the flush of money printing from the pandemic QE/stimulus cheques have already washed into the system AND China's zero Covid strategy is also fuelling supply side. Could a recession suffice in crushing the demand side with little intervention from Feds IR hike? The war in Ukraine is also fueling certain type of commodities and nothing is more basic than oil/gas being the lowest expense for industry of making/transporting things.

Anyone willing to discuss this type of macros which has an impact of the type of asset class?