Ya I hear ya mate. But try not to feel that way . It's not productive for you. You , me , and the rest of us need to move past that all now.
Besides , they had to price it this way , and it's now become clearer that they had these intentions as far back as the 25th March per my posts.
And this isn't the only reason this pricing level of 18 -19 is so key. You can go back even further than that if you would like me to.
But the reality is that due to current Market conditions and obvious internal delays in getting the starting information out for this raise - ie the late and unexpected to a degree PFS, they apparently have taken on board these criticisms and are setting about to make the appropriate changes. So we'll see if this eventuates.
So with Market conditions prevailing and other Industry uncertainties due the economic backdrop , they had to price it this way is my feeling.
Don't get me wrong. All the shortcomings and broken promises on timelines by Management is very disappointing .
However , in the balance of the analysis and in response to a much earlier posted question to me by Chesca ( which I was unable to get back to ) , I really do think this is going to be a little ' ripper ' and that as we head into the July and particularly the Late August period when the 2022 Annual Accounts are produced and released , I think you will find we are breaking substantially new all time highs on the SP.
And in further answer to Chesca's question , I never personally felt that the ' we would be producing in the 1st Qtr of 2023. But that is not to say we won't be entering into ' Production '. 2 distinctly different meanings albeit with virtually the same amount of work items and preparations to get through before either description is met.
And with all this current talk about the PFS numbers being this or not being that yadda yada .......
The fact of the matter is that we have a further DFS to drop sometime between now and the end of August I would imagine......or early September , and while Quebec is potentially in full swing election mode.
We also have an Authier PFS and potentially some back figures on Carbonate conversion and capital spend.
BAPE is also in play the closer we get to the Quebec General Election I would think. Or shortly thereafter.
Then there is almost an ' unquantifiable ' amount of good news potentially flowing from the Moblan results.
Pilbara lithium results are in there somewhere too.
But the BIG one for me and one which you could almost think is playing itself out more ' politically ' here with the ' Managed ' NPV of NAL......is the fact that Lynch and Co had previously stated that there was much more work to be done on the ' Mark to Market ' valuation of the acquisition of NAL. And this won't really reveal itself until the FINAL accounts are put out around some potential commentary as well.
So while numbers are numbers in terms of the economic and financial ones you normally see in a PFS , DFS , or BFS - these are obviously different to the Balance Sheet numbers as determined by accounting standards and AASB / international reporting requirements which are mandated for your balance sheet numbers on valuations , investments etc.... And so these are the numbers and increased values which are important for the ' security ' and various loan charges which the lenders will take out against these revised Asset Values.
So we need to understand what all this means and the various ' competing ' interests which are in play.
So I can see how Brett and Paul might want the true picture of these numbers to be locked and completed before the finalise Private funding. But at the same time , there is a case that due the current Market Volatility that these numbers cannot be ascertained and derived until other aspects are completed ' cross project ' with say Authier.
At the same time , it could also be perceived as a bit of ' Leverage ' by Brett and his team in so far as not being able to finalise and therefore having to suppress the NPV of NAL until Authier is FULLY permitted . And because no matter how hard you try to ring fence the TWO separate but conjoined projects , it still is a case of the Left hand feeding into the Right hand in terms of economic and financial valuation of hand to mouth so to speak.
So I feel once this is done . And I'm saying by the end of August , that this will ' unlock ' further implied value in NAL as against its acquisition valuation as well. And maybe this is why it is being kept ' visually ' lower on the NPV side of things because they don't want a MASSIVE revaluation to ensue right this very moment or even this financial year. Maybe they want to carry forward this obvious and inescapable pending upside reval from the NAL acquisition.
So lots of hidden and competing issues around the PFS ( non definitive ) economic statement and so potentially BIGGER moves coming again on the SP soon I would think.
So in specific answer to Chesca's question about my SP revised prediction. I still believe I will be right again.........
(20min delay)