Just watched the interview. Here are my thoughts for what it's worth...
OVERALLYes, no major news not heard in Chris' previous presentations in recent months, but Chris seemed better able to communicate the message. He seemed more able to instill confidence in where the future of graphite, and in particular the advantages of synthetic graphite. He defined in layman's terms many important points why Novonix Anode materials will do well in the coming decade.
PROBLEM WITH THEIR OFFICIAL SCALING PLANS?
The market is going to SO huge, than Novonix's anode material will only be a very small amount of the supply, and not enough for any large scale battery manufacturer or OEM in the short term. Thus, a lot more anode material is going to be needed, as there is far too little. Thus, is Chris opening the door that their 150k tonnes of supply in 2030 will be much larger if things go well? (see below)
The other issue was time. It sounds like late next year (2023) before significant production commences and serious income comes in. Maybe some small scale sales before then, but we just have to be patient, as it seems to take quite some time for these large fitouts etc.
SCALE ISSUES-OPPORTUNITIES
"They want scale" was something Chris emphasised. The 10k tonnes would only make batteries for 150 000 vehicles, which wouldn't really look after one single factory when at capacity. By 2030, they might be able to cover around 2 million vehicles equivalent (some going to storage etc), which is better, but you'd think there would be scope for even greater amounts given the way things are going. My thoughts are that if Samsung and Sanyo both want to move forward using Novonix anode materials in their American factories, Novonix will need to further expand between 2025 and 2030 to even more than 150k tonnes. We could also assume that Volkswagen may used our material in their US factory and the possible expansion into Europe could allow even more options. If we imagine that Volkwagen makes way more than 2 million EVs per year worldwide by that stage, then again, they're going to need HUGE amounts of graphite from somewhere.
MORE THAN JUST ANODE
Chris emphasised near the end their other divisions have enormous opportunities. We await more information on their Cathode division and how they can integrate cathode material (and electrolyte) into the battery supply chain they're already established. How will DPMG give NVX advantages in production? I'm really looking forward to finding this out.
V2G - THE ULTIMATE ADVANTAGE FOR NVX
Chris made the case for why synthetic graphite, primarily Novonix's anode material, has such a high cycle life, that makes true V2G possible. Current nickel batteries would not really work given cycle life, hence why few car companies are really pushing this forward. V2G would do so much good for the planet, allowing much more stability to the grid, and if Novonix has the knowhow to make baterries allowing V2G at scale, it is truly a game-changer. Again, not sure they currently have the scale to truly change the game, but obviously their work with Emera is a different way to use the high cycle life in storage instead. LFP has a high cycle life too, so maybe a combination of the two make it possible... Still, if NVX could get a carmaker to go ahead with V2G in a way that wouldn't degrade the battery, it would be a tremendous advantage to them... The premium of paying for this would be worth it.
WHERE'S NICK??
Apparently Nick Liveris was there with Chris, but didn't speak. Would have been interesting to hear from him, as I don't remember Nick in any previous presentations...
I remember first investing in NVX when I stumbled across the DPMG patent announcement almost exactly 2 years ago. I saw amazing opportunities there. I still see these opportunities, but have learned that patience is the key with this company. For the first year I kept expecting the Samsung MOU to be confirmed into a supply agreement every day, and didn't understand why things were taking so long. I guess it took me a while to understand the depth of complexities of this type of manfacturing and timescale for testing, grading, adjusting specifications, tweaking techniques etc.
I don't post as much nowadays, but haven't wavered in my belief of what Novonix could be over the coming years.
(20min delay)