Discussion on SP, page-426

So my very rough MLX valuation is as follows:

$80m
CYM convertible notes
NC1 shares and options
Convertible notices annual interest
Bit of interest coming in with an increasing cash horde

$120m
Cash on hand end of June quarter

$50m
Rentails project - significant work already completed - very few new tin projects going ahead - likely high demand and tin prices going forward

$50
Tax losses - near guaranteed to generate ongoing profits and those profits will be supercharged by not paying tax.

$300m total value. Obviously very rough figures but you get an idea. I expect cash on hand will be growing each quarter.

Now given it looks like a recession coming with an accompanying bear market then it's likely MLX falls in price regardless of fundamentals. A 15% to 20% fall over a bear market from here roughly puts us at a market cap of $350m. Which is very close to the absolute base valuation that I have for MLX and which ideally is increasing as cash on hand grows.

Profitability should increase over time as recovery is slowly increasing each quarter and Area 5 full production leads to increased grades and production. The absolute danger apart from market sentiment is the tin price. It's fallen hard, but offset somewhat by the fall in the AUD. With China opening up and the EV revolution in full swing I'm still bullish on the tin price reclaiming some of it's recent losses and becoming more bullish over time.

My plan - hold what I have and see if it drops 20% which could well coincide with the transition from bear to bull markets. Bears average 10 months so we have been smacked pretty good so far but the turnaround might not be too far away and will potentially synchronise well with improving fundamentals. So if it falls another 15% to 20% then load up again as the downside from there should be very limited.