One of the other exhibits in Goldman's report. Interpreting the graph, their 2030 LCE demand estimate about 2,800. While there will continue to be debate about which mines/types of mines will come on-stream and how quickly they are agreeing with the massive demand increase. With projected supply of 693 in 2022 (and 1483 exc recycling in 2025) there is still massive increases in output required beyond this to hit 2030+ volumes. Given all the logistical issues in increasing supply meeting this demand is not going to be easy and more big projects are needed beyond those in the pipeline.
Also, there's an increased likelihood of stockpiling if there is a temporary surplus. Ask yourself this question: If you were an OEM and there was some extra lithium available in say 2024 but you were struggling to secure 2025-2030 supply do you do? A) buy this extra supply and be able to plan for several years of output growth? or B) let others buy it and hope you can buy what you need on-market across 2025-2030?
CXO Price at posting:
$1.14 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
