The problem is, markets globally are heavily trashing companies that have ridden the growth wave over the last 2 years. For many, it will be bad timing, and bye bye...
But good question re DW. $50mio DW with say $5mio capital to support it. 20% yield on loans they source, 8% funding costs. That's $50mio x 20% - $45mio x 8% = $6.4mio revenues annualized. Subtract provision for expected loss. Typically 4-5% for business loans, so say $2.5mio here. Not quite profitable yet but getting there. .
Clearly, a DW that can be fully deployed is the lifeline. It is not scalable easily though, as it needs a lot of capital. So won't make us rich. But it would give SPX additional runway. SaaS/Payments revenues, if they ever materialize would then be priced at much higher multiples. I think we all know this is the path to redemption... But a) can they close it? It's taken too long and that is a worry, and b) can they fully use it? Got to think that the larger clients they have will give access to plenty of borrowers. That is where we will see if they have done a good job at designing the product/interface/etc...
There is a path... but they have to show they can execute... I think it is a toss coin at this stage.
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