weekend charting 8th jan 2010, page-45

  1. 2,829 Posts.
    Richard, WBC,

    First is 18 months of the daily, with a fork framing the entire period. WBC has rallied up to the top of the fork during that last little dividend run, but did not quite make it to the top tyne, indicating a little weakness. The actual dividend run itself is framed by that smaller black fork with the handle pinned in June 09. After the dividend run it went into a declining phase framed by the red fork, and broke down out of the rally fork to the black 1st warning line.

    Lately, since it hit the ema195 (black) area, it has been in a consolidation phase framed by the blue fork. Recently it blew through the ema41(pink) and ema34(gold) area into the blue upper channel



    That little rally resulted in it breaking out of the red fork, and you can see in the second chart (6 months of the daily) that it is currently sitting on the ema8(green) which is under pressure but receiving close support from ema34/41. The stoch (15,5,3) is curling over and groaning from the selling pressure, but it has not caved in.



    The 3rd chart is a few months of 5 minute data to try to get the swing points accurate. The consolidation fork in blue does not add much to the picture, and the purple fork I have added to show the boundaries on that last little rally. But if you notice, price did not quite make it down to the bottom red tyne before it rallied up, and then it exceeded the top red tyne. So I have also included a modified version of this chart where I have rotated the red fork to fit price within the boundaries



    It means the handle is slightly off the absolute swing point, but it's one of the things that you get used to when it gives you a better result.

    I am not sure which of the red alignments is correct, but either way there seems to be declining pressure where there will be a test around the cross of the rising purple forks support tyne and the blue median line (where I have increased the thickness). I sold 1/3 of my WBC position on the break of the purple ML. I have not shorted it with CFDs yet, but it is definitely on my mind to do so, if the purple support tyne is crossed. I will also be watching carefully to figure out whats going on with the red fork alignment. Of course if price bounce of the blue ML, I will probably buy back the 1/3 position, until I have cause to shed it again.

 
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