CRN made US$410m in the March Quarter (~570m AUD). Market Cap ~AUD3.8b. Add some cash for EV. NHC made $358.6m in the April quarter. Market Cap ~AUD3.8b inclusive of the convertible notes. Add some cash for EV.
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In fact i have CRN now as the cheapest coal producer on ASX on this metric apart from maybe SMR (this may be debatable though). Unfortunately i cannot see any short term catalyst to see this correcting.
- BRL and TER were cheaper than CRN about 4-6 weeks ago however they both had short term catalysts through great charts that now have propelled their valuations above CRN. - NHC had a sh!t result but they've got the Millners buying huge amounts of stock on market and entry into ASX200 - WHC has got a buyback going
CRN? - Not withstanding weigan's amateur comments, the chart is a bit rattled and not inspiring especially compared to the other producers. The ex-dividend on the chart doesn't help - No one trusts the management not to go out and empire build and destroy shareholder value. They should be buying back shares (especially in lieu of this tax-disadvantaged unfranked CDI dividend) like WHC are. No director buying unlike NHC and they own hardly any as well. - share registry is a mess. As above, the majority shareholder EMG is an empire builder. Aus Super own 9% and their woke clients will eventually force them to sell. L1 is a hedge fund who owns ~5% and is not known to hang around long. Both will be selling into any strength. Where are the presentations and roadshows to attract other non-woke institutions? Every Quarterly report, half the questions on the analyst call are answered by 'we won't be giving guidance on that' which also doesn't help.
so while i see the shares being the cheapest of the ASX producers, i don't see any ST catalysts to correct this.
CRN Price at posting:
$2.14 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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