QPM is not a miner, but some of the same concepts apply to any startup when there's a viability question hanging over the picture. I definitely don't think that illustration accurately reflects what we should expect from QPM, except for the basic concept of a 'discovery' leading to a price peak then a crash as the excitement dies down and questions and uncertainty take over during the feasibility phase (especially when there are multiple delays which will inevitably create fear and impatience), the 'orphan period' while waiting for confirmation and patiently flying under the radar because the action is too far ahead for anyone to care about, then a mad scramble to get in as 'production' starts. A lot of this would even apply to starting up a new cafe or completely different business/company.
We have some people here force feeding themselves sour grapes, apparently bewildered at the notion that the price might go down when there's a delay at this stage despite how completely obvious that was, and claiming that it won't happen while it actually is happening. Sure, this may be good news in the long term, but over the next few months the market is obviously going to react harshly. The market is sceptical of claims (understandable; most startups on the ASX go nowhere and shareholders sit there talking about how many Lambos they're going to buy even after it's obvious the company is going to fall over) and hates delays (also understandable - humans are risk-averse and would prefer to have their money somewhere safe or somewhere making money rather than sitting around dead). When there are multiple delays in proving something up there is a higher than usual chance of ultimate failure. I'm personally still optimistic about QPM's long term future, but can fully understand that the market is going to react badly, be sceptical, and looking at a few months rather than a few years, I'm sure we're going to see lower prices. You just can't expect the market to respond favourably to news like this, it's silly to think the market will be completely forgiving, that's just not the way these things work.
I won't be 100% surprised if we see 12.5c hold, but I'm guessing it probably won't. The market had us around 15-20c when it was expecting the DFS at any time. Let's not lie to ourselves, it's going to price us in lower for a while after a delay and (whether or not it makes sense or has any real foundation) increased doubt about feasibility.
Personally I'm not particularly upset. I'll try to accumulate more over the next few months, and if we do end up seeing higher prices in 3ish years, I'll be happy. If we just end up getting around what I was previously expecting and it takes a few more months, I'll still be happy. Even if we're nowhere near as amazing as I'm expecting, as long as we do have a viable project and we are over around 50c in 2-3 years, I won't be crying. I'm not upset, the sky isn't necessarily falling (I don't think it is), but let's not pretend the price is going to hold up strongly over the next few months. This is bad news at least in the eyes of the market in the short term.
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