I have been with FXL now HUM since 2017, attended AGM's in person in Melbourne and got to know the previous CFO pretty well. So I reckon I understand the business somewhat.
My belief is that only bnpl operators, with significant scale, will be in business within the next 12 months. Afterpay/Block will survive as will Klarna, PayPal, Apple and some of the bigger banks. All the others including zip and sezzle will be gone.
Hum and Latitude together have just enough scale to survive in the bigger ticket item sector of bnpl. If the deal does not go ahead the Hum bnpl operation will get closed down as it is running at a loss and will not be able to sustain the start up costs in the UK.
After Humm is closed all we are left with is Commercial Finance and just imagine the costs involved in closing down Humm Consumer. You can kiss dividends goodbye for a couple of years at least, especially whilst inflation is out of control.
I would much rather get some vaklue for Humm Consumer and keep the Commercial business whicgh is travelling well.
It absolutely pains me to back this deal as I will incur large losses along with a massive opportunity cost going back 5 years. Sometimes you have to stop flogging a dead horse.
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