Has anyone seen good data on how long the supply chain is in terms of time between digging lithium bearing ore out of the ground and that ore finding its way to a delivered EV? There are a significant number of transportation, pre-processing stockpile and processing steps in this process. This would tend to indicate the cumulative process is something approaching a year. If so, it means the ore being dug out of the ground in 2022 is 2023 EV sales.
What new projects started in 2020/2021? Few if any. This limited new supply is meeting the new EV demand in 2021 / 2022 (Houston, We have a problem!!) Core is a rarity in starting to dig ore in 2022 to assist EV supply in 2023 Some other projects expect to dig ore in 2023 which will assist EV A larger number are anticipating digging ore in 2024 including LTR to assist EV supply in 2025
Is this timeline issue where GS have got it wrong? (in addition to assuming projects run on-time and have no ramp-up period)
If the time lag is about a year, the mining starting to come on-stream in 2024 is supplying 2025 not 2024 EV demand. This is important because if you have 20-30%+ growth rates, another year of demand matters (and prevents over-supply).
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