Its an interesting time for this AleeG And can understand the bit more hesitation thoughts myself .
This time is with a bigger trend than normal tax time window dressing etc etc
To think about .
Ive been thinking along some same lines and could very well be best suited to stocks with momentum and income coming into the cycle this year and not so much the spec space for some added protection .
The energy sector is the hotest sector and my belief is a big cause of the inflation we are seeing which for some stocks is supply restraint thats facing legislation problems as well in bringing more supply to the market .
Think any energy stock coal oil gas and then onto the energy materials in the new wave of energy .
Put income to / as the main driver near term income etc
They possible will have the most resilience for the short term . Demand for commodities does not hugely change even in downturn for some commodities . Essentials pretty much .
What's the current fear in the market? Inflation and supply constraints .
The fear of interest rate rises is being pushed not by borrowing costs of money that's being used to control the above . There is heaps of cheap money for demand as the markets flooded with it and banks are not in fear of being subject to higher borrowing costs for the funny money stuff imo
They are in fear of inflation central bank wise and trying stem demand with rates when its a supply problem not with money but constraint .
The central bank cant do much about this with rates if they are increasing the cost of investment on the supply side because the constraints through the new wave of energy sources cant deliver with any ramp up of demand for energy that's not volatile !
All that money that has been thrown around by guvnuts around the world to keep up demand for consumer confidence did nothing for the supply side of demand .
Under invest on supply and increase demand means your first place underinvestment's which effect productivity and costs need go in tandem .
Politics aside we have had renewable energy running in this country as baseload for over a century . Have they major differences in energy costs and are a manufacturing power house ?
No .
Are you going see cheaper prices from the renewable sector ? Only if you can offset the cost of how much it cost you because its so volatile in being able supply to demand !
Look up the cheapest sources of energy in the world by country and they are fossil and they don't charge the public for them as much .
Look up the most expensive electricity in the world and its green and they tax you astronomically on it as well .
Who ever discovered making energy the most volatile commodity you could trade and the most essential for countries to try and control an took it from being oil to gas electricity and now renewables is at best insane or brilliant with no social license to the world or an excuse they do !
Im mad the markets mad . And when you make energy markets volatile its insane to try and control if you don't own it as the public .
Some things should be owned for the common good and energy is one of them imo
The space to still be in is energy fossil or renewables materials as in minerals .
Renewable minerals are not getting cheaper and is supply constraints in both .
The government is going take you down the wind and solar passage of direction on costs and being able feel good .
The base load supply we have had for years with Tasmania as an example shows you its do able for clean energy and renewables .
Solar and wind can only offset costs as they need baseload to work .
The only other is tidal and imo that is the one which makes the most sense to be able provide less volatile energy in the market where its traded .
Get that!
Traded on a market like the stock market .
Baseload renewable is they way to go . Cost maybe little more but well you don't have add battery costs and only the transmission cost once for the long term investment .
If thats the clean energy direction we are going take . The sea is the answer for drought its the answer for base load and if you can combine it with fresh water production even better to stop the volatility in energy markets .
The Sydney waste water can harness waste water into hydro production .Think about it .
Do i like rentable energy !
You bet i do if it can do base load on its own rather than needing offsets to it .
Momentum scan .
View attachment 4443505Sniper screen .
View attachment 4443511I hope all the tin lids are going well
@ALeeGIts always part of the stt to ask a question to help the team think as a paramount part of being a team .
Even if ya get a file dump of thoughts it may help why its different this time round . I feel the same also . Im not invested in anything at all and just a bit lucky this time as well that the trouble and strife made me change focus to get out when we did.
Most focused time at the market is around this time as well . Going for holidays this year and well im confused as any why we have let our energy market expose ourselves to inflation we cant control .
Maybe to focused that its energy is the problem perhaps . But the sector that's performing is energy bucking the trend and this started back in the middle of the virus when supposedly demand was low ?
I do though as an aside in energy think hydrogen has some merits in the eventual green machine stuff as it will provide as the ev people say the anxiety OF THE BATTERY RUNNING OUT !
Its major concern we all feel thats surmountable when you cant charge your phone it has a battery !
Long term baseload renewables would alleviate the concern imo .
It cost bit more but its agility to provide a secure energy supply in a tradeable market without volatility is best .
Is it cheaper than nuclear ?
Maybe but if the catch cry with wind and solar is they are free of commodity costs then you have ask how much is this battery going be and whether it can be recharged because they are not going sell it for free .
