the problem...., page-5

I am not going to downramp this stock to try get into this a better price. Just state facts from a non holder perspective, trying to evaluate how much I am prepared to pay. Based purely on a risk\reward basis, after such a huge run already:

1)MC has boomed to near 40M on existing shares on issue.

2)Price has been a multi bagger for some in last day, 10 bagger for some in last few days. Continues to surge.

3) Placement to professional investors was 1.2c. They have gained over 700%.

4) ADOO options are a HUGE discount. With an exercise price of only 1.5c in 9 months. Options usually a sign of confidence in the stock. ADOO should be trading only 1c below the heads- IMO. Why is the trading sentiment in this currently VERY poor? The options are a large NEGATIVE, meaning you may buy them then exercise them right now for well below the current SP. Yet this takes a week or 2 to perform this, therefore investors are not confident the SP will hold. Unsure how to value, etc.

5) Potential is unsure and direction from Management appears retrained at this early stage. Maybe some other holders can offer realistic figures? Seems to point to a potential target revenue in their presentation of 60-150M in the sector where they have signed the contract. Does this mean they can get royalties to this value OR royalties on this amount?

If 60M is achieveable PA from this product. Then obviously it is still undervalued. Yet the unknown factors make it very hard to value this company. Yet if 10% of 60M pa achieveable then that is 6 MIL pa. Minus 2 Mil for expenses. Then we have a company in the money 4 Mil pa, on PE of 10 that a MC of 40M. So is this how others have priced it to date. My guess is this is 90% in the hands of professional day traders ATM. Yet value investors may take up if value can be seen in the future.

If 60M is expected in royalties alone then the MC should be 600M on a PE of 10 (SP= approx $1.6) ... Currently no one is pricing this company in arena yet till more time passes...

My Q is has anyone else read the preso and do you think they are targeting 60-150M in royalties OR royalties of this amount???

6) Looking at the 10 year chart. This company has had 3 main spikes before heading back to 1c over time. SO every so often they have surged 1000%+ then headed back to normal. The company has been around for a long time, yet has been a 1c company for a majority of that time with the rare HUGE spike.

It is a high risk play- more direction on the details of potential revenue and the royalty % would be nice.

Was hoping to try enter at a MC of less than 20M (SP approx 5c). Do not think this will be possible now... Then it worth a punt in my mind...


Yet it sounds like many others are very hopeful to enter at a 5c pricing also. Until further guidence of the details of the contract are given, if they are given.