Hi Paj187 - what you say is the obvious thing to think - I would have said so too until I did more research into what happens at a bottom.
I found the chart below, it will do to illustrate but there are some longer term charts which cover the major bear movements in the last few decades which are the charts I was looking for - maybe I'll find again and post too.
Looking at the charts, it appears that VIX (which means volatility, or more correctly the fear index) is low at a top when the players are happy and spikes up when the fear sets in as the market falls.
Hence VIX is a predictor of the bottom.
The charts which I will look for again (the lost charts) show that over decades there is a line at which, if VIX hits it, the market reverses, but there is a second line which requires a much higher value of VIX, and which corresponds to the major disasters ie WW1 - WW2 - the great depression.
The VIX at present, from a chart I saw today, is just below the correction line - so that will be a focus after today's price action in NY.
There are two other interesting indicators -
1. US 10 year bond rate - which reflects the movement of cash from risk to the safety of bonds.
2. USD/JPY - I read that the millions of Japanese investors are are keen judges of the markets - when they go 'risk on' they transfer money to NY - and in reverse. That money movement changes the ratio of the two currencies, and can be used to read tops and bottoms.
It all means, I think, we are near the bottom. Unless the global situation (covid, war with Russia, debt, QEexit, food crisis etc) is perceived as being existential.
I always say these days - Stay Cool and Stay Engaged. Look on the chart at the pace of recovery of S&P - like a fast train leaving the station, maybe thousands will try, but only hundreds will get on.
But DYOR, I do not wish to take responsibility for my own thoughts and opinions.
Ann: Wide Interval of IOCG Alteration Confirms Pot. at Mt Lamb NE, page-199
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