Valuing Hum, page-8

Based on Hum's latest announcements, I've calcuated the likely FY22 results with high confidence.

1. HCF May fiscal year-to-date (YTD) cash net profit after tax (CNPAT) is down approximately 61% compared to previous corresponding period (PCP)
PCP is June 2020 to June 2021= $46m.
FY22 is $46m * (1-0.61) = $18m

2. Commercial May fiscal YTD CNPAT up approximately 47% compared to PCP
PCP is June 2020 to June 2021= $22.3m.
FY22 is $22.3 * (1+0.47) = 32.8m

Humm CNPAT FY22 should be ~$50m. Mcap as of Friday = $230m


I also decided to examine the worst case scenario - i.e. if tomorrow Hum had to cease all operations and wind down.

Hum has Net Tangible Assets of ~$400m of which ~$80m in unrestricted cash minus debt note.

Remaining $300m relates to Loan book receivables net of borrowings. Lets assume we sell the loan book at a 80c on the dollar, giving us $240m.

Being conservative, let's say we can get $80m + $240m = $320m of net cash by shutting down Humm.

If I had the cash, or was a PE fund, i'd buy Hum on Monday for $250m and rip it apart to pocket a cool $70m profit on my investment.

Not a bad return - are there any flaws in my calculation?