Crude oil has gotten a lot more interesting as of late. Aftera brutal 2020, the price of oil futures going negative at one point, oil is nowpushing above $80/bbl. Given current views of “inflation” from the massive liquidity infusions andsupply chain disruptions, the focus on speculative positioning is notsurprising.
As shown in the monthly chart below, the priceadvance in crude oil is now back to historical extremes that have previouslydenoted tops in oil prices. As a result, the current extreme overbought,extended, and deviated positioning in crude will likely lead to a rather sharpcorrection.
Furthermore, the deflationary push and the dollar rally will likelyderail oil prices if it continues.
Thegood news is that oil did finally break above the long-term downtrend. However,it is too soon to know if these prices will “stick.”
So basically after all that, Lance Roberts thinks based on "charts" (charts don't tell the whole story) oil prices will fall but admittedly he has said he has no idea what oil prices are going to do. Who said there's a deflationary push?? All indicators say there has been massive inflation (more than what the CPI suggests). Mostly all commodities are up substantially. I haven't seen rates go up. Money supply still increasing rapidly, debt ceiling has been raised. Biden is pleading for OPEC to raise oil production. OPEC have announced they will not be increasing oil production, and why would they?
