Stacking Shelves, page-1156

I'd be interested to hear what people's revenue expectations are for FY22.

1H22 revenue was reported as $658.8M and forecast to be significantly higher in 2H22.

The base case revenue in that model implies 2H22 revenue of $841.2M (which is a 27.6% increase from 1H22 - definitely "significant"). However it is probably not unreasonable. I recall that 2H22 revenue was already forecast to be significantly higher than 1H22 at the FY21 report in August last year. Then in February it was stated that the revenue outlook had improved further.

To be honest I am not sure about the 15% EBITDA margin assumption. 1H22 was 14.8% so it seems they are assuming it remains unchanged in 2H22. However, the company indicated that the revenue improvement would not translate into higher earnings, due to greater investment in marketing. So if 2H22 revenue increases but the EBITDA $ amount on that remains similar to 1H22, then it follows that the EBITDA margin would decrease a little. For instance, $100M EBITDA on $841M revenue would be around 12%, however, I could be misinterpreting their comments.