I think you are getting a little carried away there with the pricing. Past quarter sales averaged $2650/t. Which at current production rates puts the SP sub $2
These headline figures of $7000 from bmx auctions are a fantastic bonus but not what you should be basing long term projections on.
Long term prices will come down until margins are low enough that new developments or expansion plans are not attractive. Most of these projects were based on long term pricing around $900/t, delivering sustainable profits. If you plug that into your spreadsheet you can see even at the full 1m tpa production rate that's not great for the SP.
The question is how fast the market will bring in new supply vs how fast demand will rise.
I don't think we will see a surplus of supply this side of 2030, and we may well see elevated prices until then. But I would caution your expectations somewhat.
PLS chart, page-6840
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