Hi 1ronnie, What's your interpretation of the rather significant decrease of the US 10 yield ? Honestly, I am a bit surprised. I thought that it was difficult to imagine given the inflation trend and QT.
Do you think that we switched to a market where there is less downside risks on PE (due to the decrease of long term interest rates), but more risks on earnings (due to the higher probability of a recession) ? I do not mean that PE is not going to continue to decrease (still my main scenario), but that it will decrease less than previously expected. Still mainly based on historical median Shiller PE (adjusted for interest rates).
Thanks for your articles above. I think they partly answer these questions.
