I did honestly ask Special Angel for those numbers. She has confirmed it twice. Certainly I've never seen so much red on my shares list. I keep looking at the 30 minute on the S&P 500 and thinking 'If only I'd listened to snake lady'. But she damned well didn't give me the date. I remind you that she said it would drunkenly stagger after 1148/50, not plumet. So no-one should be too frightened
In the interests of openness and sharing... what do you think of my old theory... buy double everytime the markets drop - and keep doing that until I run out of money. I once wrote a programme - back in the mid 80's - that tried to win at roulette. This programme laid bets on even odds. It initially put down say $5. If it lost, it would double to $10. If it lost again then it would double to $20...and on. If it won, it would immediately return the bet to $5.
I had 10 tables running at 10 bets per second and the winnings would quickly climb into the trillions.
I then introduced casino limits ie. a roulette table is typically $5 - $500 bet range. This allowed seven 50% losses in a row. Reducing my winnings to a few billion provided I started the pot with $5000 for each table.
I then introduced the zero rule. ie if the ball falls on zero. Casino takes all. I still made money...for a while.
The key to profit, had to be the ability to increase the range of my bets. Being able to double only six times ie. a maximum bet of $320 hampered my winnings. I increased it to seven by doing an imaginary $2.50 bet and only betting the first real ($5) after one loss. (A la Schroders cat). That improved my winnings considerably, but would slow things down too much in the real world.
Another way of increasing the range is that once I had doubled 6 times after 7 loses, my top bet being $320. I would move to another table, being a higher value one and bet $720 on 50% odds. You can see where this is going. I never got around to modelling the multiple table scenario fully, but it was playing out well.
It would be very interesting to adapt this to the indexes and try in a small way. Stop losses are out of the question though. The stock market equivalent of the casino's '0' would be the trading fee. Any thoughts
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