Without meaning any disrespect, I think you missed my point. Previously when demand has outstripped supply, price has jumped and incentivised new supply. We saw this in the 2008 onwards period when China joined the international market - and Indonesia responded. Then similarly when India joined the international market (materially) in the mid 2010's - again it was largely Indonesia that responded, along with some increase from Australia and Russia. Over a ten-year period, Indonesian coal exports grew at a compound rate of 18%, which helped keep prices at a reasonable level. However, now Indonesia has maxed out, any gains from there will be minimal due to domestic demand, government policy and infrastructure capacity. And all the other major suppliers have constraints that I mentioned, which are not easily or quickly overcome. The fact that most suppliers have been unable to increase or even maintain exports at a time when prices are at record highs (and have been since late 2021) points to a heavily and structurally constrained supply.
So I maintain that this time is different - there will be no material supply response because there can't be a material supply response. That doesn't mean prices will remain where they are today, but I think we're in for a period of structurally higher coal and energy prices, largely supply-side driven.
WHC Price at posting:
$4.65 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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