I'm liking what I'm reading here Fluffy Et. Al. there are some very good points being raised on both sides of the coin. There is risk involved in just about every company on the ASX... RIO holders will be breathing a little easier now that there has been a little recovery but still nervous. BNB holders will be wondering if there CHESS documents would look good as drink coasters...
Anyway just scratched out a few figures on EPS etc. here and pointed out some assumptions anyone who can help it come to a better accuracy, I would welcome your input.
At 1.2c exp on an SP of 6-7c I would guess they will become FP shares before Sept-10 approx $3Mil in the bank. 246,567,355 new FP shares on the register. Total 668,995,884 FP shares on EX.
If share price moves to and stabilizers over 10c I would expect Feb-11 oppies to be turned into FP shares long before the Exp date. $5.3Mil in the bank. 81943281 new FP shares on the register. Total 750939165 FP Shares.
Revenue from Bang in first quarter. $ ????
From Sept 09 Quarterly. Burn rate Approx $560,000 Cash at end of Quarter $414,000. Without further information I expect the Dec-09 Quarterly to indicate a minimal loss for the periodAlthough in the Quarter under the Other Expenses it posted $250,000 I dont know what that cost is attributable to or if we will see it present in the Dec-09 quarterly.
Projections on existing information. Expected income from Exp Oppies / Quarterly costs = Quarters Covered by funds Sep-10 $3000000/$560000 = 5.3 Quarters Fen-11 $5300000/$560000 = 9.5 Quarters Without further revenues from product sales or licensing agreements there is well over 4 Quarters taken care of financially. IMO ADOs Annual financial future is considerably stable without revenue considerations.
Revenues From the ADO presentations management are looking at achieving an ANNUAL revenue income from these products of between $130,000,000 and $390,000,000. I will try to find a 5 year business model that incorporates a mathematical growth pattern from initial distribution in fluctuating marketsI dont know If Ill find one but in the mean time I might entertain some speculation in my calculations.
Assuming the ADO business Model achieves a good % of their goals. My annual Estimates with growth are as follows. 1st year $10Mil - $25Mil 2nd year $25Mil - $50Mil 3rd Year $50Mil - $95Mil 4th Year $95Mil - $150Mil 5th Year $150Mil - $300Mil Obviously the Mar 10 Quarter should lead to more accurate projections.
Running an EPS I will use an assumption of a 30% NPAT Im only new to company business and I have no idea if 30% is representative of a Biotech NPAT. Its a conservative figure that Im guessing.
NPAT 1st year $3M - $7.5M 2nd Year $7.5M - $15M 3rd year $15M - $ 28.5M 4th year $28.5M - $45M 5th year $45M - $90M
EPS Assuming no requirement for further dilution and calculating using the total number of FP Share on issue at present and the total number of Options if exd.
FPS = 422428529 Total Oppies = 359080914
Total potential FP shares. No. Ordinary Shares= 781509443
EPS = 100 x NPAT / No. Ordinary shares
1st year $0.004 $0.010 2nd year $0.010 $0.019 3rd Year $0.019 $0.036 4th Year $0.036 $0.058 5th Year $0.058 $0.115
Yields on a full earnings payout dividend basis.. If a 5% yielding dividend was paid out. What would the share price be? EPS/.05 = SP
1st year $0.08 $0.19 2nd year $0.19 $0.38 3rd Year $0.38 $0.73 4th Year $0.73 $1.15 5th Year $1.15 $2.30
WORMY..What is the Value of the MixnGo??? I think I have been quite conservative on the numbers. But like I say Im only new to this and am still practicing my research techniques I could be wrong and the numbers are just numbers. I would be interested to see Fluffys Insider theory and the factual information its based on..I'm not a lover of my stocks. OBJ I'm out pending the release of the 3M Ann. If the figures stack up on the announcement then their should be several days of trading available there.
At todays SP of 6c. Would I be naive to think that this is a bargain in the short term and Long Term. 6c is a gift IMO.
Hope it wasn't too long.
ADO Price at posting:
6.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)