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chad987

2,922 Posts.

236

11/07/22

19:52

Post #: 62482227
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Originally posted by Jack1960: ↑

When rates rise sharply and asset prices fall steeply, there is usually nowhere to hide. Anything liquid gets sold off, including physical gold and the broader commodity complex.

I don't see anything new here that has not happened once or twice a decade since the 1970's.

I could very easily be wrong, but expect a global broad based sell off of everything in the order of a further 10% - 20% until something breaks probably in Q4, then the bankers will stop their heroics about inflation, reverse monetary policy and try to cushion the downside.

I am accumulating NCM at current prices, expecting it to get cheaper, but not certain. Either way, looking 18 months out, I can only imagine a $15 - $20 entry point will look good for this 2020s cycle. It was only 7 or 8 years ago my core position was built well under $10 and $30 was just too good a price for me not to sell a few. I simply didn't sell enough and will live with that error.

Most gold miners are in excellent financial shape and operating very profitably at current POG. They are really good reasons to go long and ride out the downward bumps along the way. There'll be some M&A amongst the junior producers, if they get cheap enough. You can count on that. NCM will be a predator but you can take your pick amongst 4 or 5 good mid tier miners that could be taken out in a heart beat over the next 12 months.

Hang tight to NCM it is Australia's biggest and best in this space.

GLTASH

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i disagree, i think Q3 will be rally time, and the real bear market comes from Q4. the charts support a Q3 rally.

remember central banks have no choice this time. they need to let things crash so inflation will come down for good. this is going to end up like another 70s - 80s - volcker period if they start pumping the economy again, s&p was 8 p/e iirc. if they start pumping again, eventually they'll have to do a volcker, it's a given, must happen, for inflation to come down for good.

Last edited by chad987: 11/07/22

NCM Price at posting: $19.26 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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