PAA 2022 , Human Trials , Covid , MND , Oncology , HVTL-1, K9 Phase III, page-905

Not being facetious NZ but perhaps there has been no material progress on any of those fronts, so they literally have nothing to report. This shouldn't be a shock with PAA. Of course there is the option that there has been material progress (in shareholder opinion) but PAA deem it not newsworthy. Either scenario is disappointing as a shareholder. Or of course they are holding off for a big bang which is less likely as withholding material info is not aligned with listed company requirements.

In any case like I have said previously, this, in my very humble opinion, is a much longer hold from here to get significant return. I don't see a significant SP increase for a 12-18 months at earliest.

1. Dog deal. May happen in some form of co-funding a phase III in shorter term. Doesn't mean we immediately get a licence deal. This may see a modest re-rate.
2. MND phase I if successful may see a modest re-rate given it is only testing tolerability, pharma kinetics etc. maybe some early marker indications. The real re-rate will likely only happen if we have a very successful phase 2 or if we were to get orphan status with FDA. Until then way to much risk for many to buy in early.
3. COVID. Well lets face it, a phase I or II will likely be Q2/3 next year at earliest. This allows time for reports from MND Phase I, then planning of the trial etc. We know how long that takes. Given PAA history going straight to a Phase II is not a given either, despite what they have said. Any mouse trial even if successful wont see any real SP increase. This will be viewed as more of the same.
4. Human Cancer - Q3/4 2023 maybe? It will likely be a phase I initially also. So again little rerate after this. People know the long runway and risks, so why buy now when I can buy in the Phase II build up.

While in the long run I think this will deliver a good return the timelines of biotech combined with the PAA pace means action may start in backend of 2023 or into 2024. Which co-incidentally is when Elanco patents begin to expire. Not saying this is a good or bad outcome, but trying to look objectively at potential timelines and sentiment. Also aligns roughly with the options expiry in Oct 2023. This tells me even they don't see much action until that point. Hitting the strike price is far from certain and at this point in my view, less likely than likely.