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10:37
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Originally posted by volcanochemical:
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thinking forward at this point in time:Conclusion - I can see the short to medium term fundamentals for Australian thermal coal in general and NHC in particular remaining attractive however due to the long term uncertainty we may see some share price peaks at low P/E simply due to the underlying long term value of potentially stranded assets with rehabilitation costs. Further i expect the value creation will largely be around dividends and possibly some M&A consolidation as the large miners strategically position into forward facing commodities while pure play coal companies buy up and maybe even consolidate to get the benefit of scale and diversity of geography. I am thinking USD 250 ave over next three years (based on current futures for 2024 jan-jun) wtih AUD at long term ave 70c i would think 10% p.a. ROI is high confidence with reasonable prospect of 15%+ at current pricing.
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Pretty much my thoughts. The market believes unicorn farts and solar panels will actually work some time in the next decade but reality is different. So co al miners will stay suppressed meaning outsize dividends for anybody prepared to invest in reality rather than virtue signalling and fantasy. There will be continuous sovereign risk scares associated with coal but each one will only last until the next blackout.
(20min delay)