Decent results, but we may see a few skeletons in the closets as well.
Seems that it was a strong 4Q22. You can compare the 3Q YTD with 4Q YTD to see the difference yourselves. But it looks like there was $6.8m of whisky sold ($27.2m annualised), or 34% of the annual sales in 4Q. This is quite strong actually, so the growth is continuing to look good - no doubt driven by Dark Lark sales.
However, I think part of the reason that the whisky bank is slightly up on forecasts (2.1m vs 2.0m litres) is because sales volume are lower than expected. If they have achieved their NSR/l increase of 15% as forecasted and confirmed, then that's around $248/l. This implies total sales volume for FY22 of ~80,000litres, which is ~33,000litres less than my expectations based on whisky maturation dates.
The good news is that NSR/l is holding up very well despite increasing volumes. This is obviously very good for margins, but it is also very good for the asset valuations that are a function of both the size of the whisky bank and the revenue they get from the whisky. However, the bad news is that they are perhaps struggling to scale the marketing and distribution as much as they had hoped. Very little commentary from them on exports ("making progress on key relationships and expanding export capabilities" - whatever that means).
I look forward to seeing some more detail in the annual report.
LRK Price at posting:
$2.70 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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