Just a quick reply here mate, will try to go into more depth analysis tonight.
The divergence on the Houtly chart betwixt price and the MACD definately occurred throughout the majority of this recent drop, from mid January as you say.
there are two factors that I am mindful of though...
Number one, IF we are in a turn as indicated by a higher timespan, namely the daily here... then it appears as though the first set of divergences on the MACD on lower timespans (Hourly) seems to fail... or at least be more protracted than previous iterations in the opposit and just broken trend... this is where the Stochastic can actually help me, as I have noted a few times in this situation that a long winded MACD divergence occurred after an apparent higher timespan trend change, and then the Stochastics kicked in in the final extreme showing divergence and then a counter trend situation occurred.
Soo... I am now cautious and mindful that initial divergence after a higher timespan apparent turn has to be treated with caution... noting like the protracted run up from march 09 to reinforce that where divergence has practically occurred from the lows onwards and then reoccurred from June onwards... painful to try to trade against...
The other point is that I would "expect" a counter trend turn to be exhibited in the higher timespan trend... i am suggesting the higher timespan (daily) is now in a down trend, and as such I "expect" that the hourly will help me identify Counter trends.
based on targetting via the histograms, on the hourly, there are two areas above current price that could provide resistance... these areas are back at the broken up trendline level, and back just below the highs on the 29th of Jan.
I note that in the HISTOGRAM divergence, the Histgram extreme that occurred on the 29th to the downside is of greater magnitude than previous Histograms on this timespan.
This is pure conjecture but I am thinking this perhaps negates the idea that we are going to revisit highs.
hope that makes sense mate, there was a big long post I made back in October when we had the first Sell signal on the daily that I went into details about theories on failures of divergence on lower timespans... It should be on my blog as well but sorry I don't have time to check right now.
(20min delay)