2 weeks to go..., page-15

I didn't say "no hope".

I said the good news is priced in. Many drugs fail their first attempt to gain FDA approval - usually having to make minor adjustments (say marketing, pricing, clarification of data, etc).

As such, there is more downside risk at the moment - for example, if it fails on its first attempt it falls 40%. If it is approved then it jumps 10% to 15%.

The drug will eventually get approved - but I'm not risking a potential 10% gain for a -40% drop.