Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-11

Auto,
Yes, you would imagine that they have to declare the next distribution when they announce the 2022 result late August at the latest.
What will it be?

1. capital return. Maybe not due to risk of bein deemed an unfranked dividend by the ATO.
2. unfranked dividend.
3. Off Market Buyback at a price above market
4. I am sure that the company have given this a lot of thought, so there may be something much better planned.

How Much and When is the burning question.
They will need to make a provision for Maari abandonment at some stage
Based on the current progress of the new NZ legislation/regulation, I suspect that this would be early 2023 at the earliest.
My best estimate is that they could distrubute

1. upto $0.045 at 2022 results in August if you include the usd$9.9m received early July
2. upto $0.065 at the AGM (or another $0.02 if $0.045 distribbuted immediately)

These are doeable, but they may want to keep some powder dry.

I think that your numbers are low, and mine may be a bit high.
Either way, there should be significant cash flowing our way in the not too distant future..