Share Price Catalysts, page-1650

There's a lot of low value talk in here, from both the positive and negative posters

Add value to the discussion please.

I am now negative on CE1 since the last result. I was positive on it prior.

Here is a genuine question to those bullish on CE1 post this result.

Management have now revealed in the q+a yesterday that capex required to maintain 4000 boepd is "A$25-35m", let's say 30m. So then what would be the capex needed to get to 6000 boepd by end of 2023?

20% decline on 4000 boepd = 800 boepd. So if 30m is needed for another 800 boepd, then approx $80-100m will be needed to get to 6000 boepd (1.5 years of decline plus 2000 boepd). That's most if not all of the operating cash flow that would be generated from now til then at current oil prices, that's assuming no hedging costs.

Management have understated capex requirements and overstated production targets, no surprise for market discount. But is it justified? This last result breaks my model hence why I sold. There is not a single metric I can tweak to get anywhere near a logical sounding result, except for one - the real world decline rate. It would all make sense to me if it is closer to 35%, not 20%.

If the most recent decline rates are as high as that then I would value Blackspur far lower than what I believe the market is valuing it. The quality of assets is now coming into question here, at least to me.