What I find interesting about this stock is that, it has two projects that I think are equally worthy of the current market cap but the market still only appears to be giving any value at all to just one project. This stock was trading around these levels last year before there was anything mentioned about the green ammonia. Even then, the mc doesn't appear to me to be enough for either project.
While the phosphate project appears to be smaller than what the green ammonia project will be, it is closer to production and, pending a positive DFS, will be fully funded both with cash and debt.
Despite probably being the smaller project, the scoping study still forecasts an EBITDA of US$90mill at full production. That's A$130mill cash flow per year on a long term mine and that was using a MAP price of $643 compared to current prices around $900. It was also before a considerable amount of extra demand has been identified from larger commercial farms and now with an extra 100,000tpa or more than 20% of SS expected full capacity committed to phosphate for batteries that wasn't in the SS. That full capacity EBITDA forecast could be brought forward and increased.
So I think it's fair to say that the current fully diluted mc at around $100mill is still very low for the phosphate project. There may still be more value added with these new downstream phosphate battery products that are being discussed as projects to be investigated with the cornerstone investors.
These new cornerstone investors are clearly interested in both projects, including a stage two 500MW green ammonia. I believe that MNB's stage one of 200MW could generate more cashflow than the phosphate.
So if the green ammonia was listed in a separate entity, what should the mc of that entity be? What would we value that company at?
I'm very interested to hear others thoughts on this. I hope others are too.
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Last
6.5¢ |
Change
-0.001(1.52%) |
Mkt cap ! $57.11M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
6.7¢ | 6.7¢ | 6.5¢ | $8.048K | 123.4K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2000 | 6.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
6.7¢ | 129732 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2000 | 0.065 |
1 | 99612 | 0.064 |
4 | 62500 | 0.063 |
1 | 30000 | 0.062 |
1 | 164037 | 0.061 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.067 | 129732 | 3 |
0.069 | 241507 | 3 |
0.071 | 72075 | 1 |
0.072 | 73500 | 2 |
0.073 | 418053 | 3 |
Last trade - 10.32am 30/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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