Good post shamish. Always good to hear a range of viewpoints. Must say this latest development has taken me by surprise. I would have assumed that any issues regarding the seismic (for the rest of the field that hasn't been proven up) would have been sorted out by now. However I am holding and intend to buy more for these reasons:
1. Timeframe slippages for these sort of projects are the norm really. I accept your point though that the directors may have been deliberately keeping shareholders in the dark regarding these timeframes. Budget blowouts are an even bigger issue though and I am hoping that EWC have this one under control. My reading of the newspaper article is that EWC want to do the seismic bit by bit and out of revenue. It may be that they will have to change tactic on this one and spend more upfront. Hopefully the relevant authority (BPMigas?) will allow the first phase to continue while this is done/sorted out. I appreciate their concern for keeping costs down though. It is hard to see where gas prices are heading and it will be the outfits that keep development costs under control that will stay above water.
2. I find it hard to get past the huge stake SE personally has in this project. This is not some fly by night director with nothing to lose who can just move on the next company. Noone has more to lose than him. And he has the runs on the board with big energy projects in Asia.
3.I am generally negative on most areas of the market for the next few years due to deleveraging. Healthcare and certain utilities are the only things that appeal. EWC is part utility and hopefully part low cost LNG producer.Seems
like a good mix to me. Patience is required though.
Just my thoughts. DYOR
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