The Brains Trust-2022, page-1465

@daveironore
"If you could use only one method to define trend what would it be?"

Such a simple question BUT is there an answer; I believe NO. When I started on my TA journey a decade or so ago I thought I would find the answer and quite simply:
"Buy in an uptrend and sell when the trend is broken"

How easy could this game be ..... I was then opened to the world of shorting & by golly lets do the reverse as well "sell/short on a downtrend and close position when the trend broke up.

One of the first books I read talked about buying when the 10MA broke up through the 30MA "signalling an uptrend"; place stop at the 30MA and move the stop up to the 30 Ma level as price pivoted. Sell when stop taken out with a monthly close. Book contained several eg's showing how EASY it is.

I just opened my gold chart and the run up to the 2011 highs PROVES how easy system is. Here is a chart;




FOOLPROOF = No. Reality is that this signal and many others I have tested will give lots of chop & you will get "stopped to death" on markets that are NOT in long term trends. It did teach me about MA's and stop levels though.

I also came to realise that in the years when I actually thought this game was easy; about 1990 up until the GFC when I followed a simple rule, "Buy straw hats in winter" and/or "buy good shares at a cheap price" all I was really doing is being lucky enough to be "playing the game" when the overall market was in an uptrend ..... however you want to measure it.

The guy whose video I shared the other other week (Sydney Trader on Youtube) has taught me a new thought/trick (is it a skill??) and look at the yearly candle for simple candle theory/VSA combos regarding "trend". Interestingly I just glanced at the 47 yearly candles of gold and here is the chart with a few of my thoughts on it. I took a few seconds to analyse that and impressive IMHO.



Just to finish here is the Gold daily with all my scribbles on it.
A few thoughts;

-some say the MA200 is an indicator of trend; its showing red at the moment eg going down = downtrend. Is that of ANY holp? I don't think so.
-Price has supported at the significant levels previously mentioned here of around $1700. and looks to be in an uptrend.
-it may be about to cross the downtrend line drawn from the 2022 highs; would that "confirm" an uptrend?




& I just read @64eheh post re MMA (multiple moving averages) = Guppy swears by them.
FWIW I studied them for a while and was not convinced that they gave much more info than one or 2 MA's combined with your eye. Just IMO.
Probs too much info here but I just happened to be looking at gold anyway!

Such a simple question, LOL