By my calculations if KS1 was 100% exposed to the upside CYQ2 Revenue for the entire portfolio should have been $9.8 million (adjusting for LF and using $50 as LGC), but revenue was $8.6 million...dilemma.
My Jemalong estimate (pure merchant revenue) was bang on at $3.8 million but my Kidston estimate was off (I thought it would have generated $5.8 million if 100% exposed to upside using a $88 floor price but it only generated $4.8 million).
Is anyone aware of any ceiling on the price paid to KS1 for generation under it's agreement with the QLD govt? By putting in a ceiling value of $275/MWh (and assuming floor price of $88/MWh) I suddenly arrive at the $4.8 million quarterly revenue for KS1....
This would have large implications for my July revenue estimates as NEM spot prices were so fkn high last month.
Predictions for July-Sept 4C (Solar production and receipts), page-88
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