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Hi amcre - I've been away for the day trying out a great new fishing spot. I'm glad I did, that way I didn't have to sit through today's red flag day.

Regarding the first part of your question:
'your thoughts on MEO atm'

My thoughts haven't changed at all regarding the fundamentals which are:

. WA-360-P (Artemis)

The value of Artemis P/S to MEOmites as calculated 16 Dec (Post #: 4793704)
here,

using MEO's figures in their release here,

has not changed i.e.

MEO to retain at least 20% Artemis which translates into $0.91 R and $2.83 UR.
Should they go it alone (ie 70%) then the figures will be $3.18 R and $9.93 UR.
Of course with the fx rate and price of gas being a variable the VPS is always in flux and MEO could retain a higher percentage.

There has since been another independent report put out by Moby Oil by the way of an RPS energy independent geologist report. This was ultra conservative but, to be fair, I addressed this later on in the same thread (Post #: 4808981).

It must be noted that the risk factor is 32% which is quite high for a prospect, but it is a risk nevertheless. MEO management put it into perspective by saying there is still a 68% possibility of failure. Even so, I have always felt that the number of companies who went through the data room with their experts, only to be trumped at the last minute by a major P&E company means that the prospects do look good.

While the VPS is better if MEO goes it alone (which they have the funds to do) the cost of a failure is greater. However, in the event of success, even though MEO will be running on reduced capital, the cost to a farminee will be greater and the SP will rise accordingly. A CR at that time, if necessary, would also be more fruitful.

An overview of the Artemis prospect can be found here.

It is interesting to note that the target for the Artemis prospect is in a Jurassic trap similar to the nearby Perseus (12Tcf), newly found Persephone and nearby Io/Jansz (20Tcf).

. WA-361-P (Zeus)

MEO still have a 35% share in WA-361-P which is adjacent to the permit containing Artemis. In their 2Q 2009 report, here, they state that they are:
'Processing seismic interpretation incorporating the Zeus-1 well results....... and further defining the West Zeus Lead together with a newly identified lead (Lead A) in the graben southeast of Gandara-1' (Amphion?)
As this permit is in the same real estate as Wheatstone, Pluto etc, it could still be a major play for MEO even after the disappointment of Zeus #1.

The Zeus-1 basic well completion report is nearing completion, while the interpretive report is in preparation. These will be released soon and these prospects could add value to MEO.

. NT/P68 (Blackwood/Heron)

MEO now have a 100% interest in NT/P68 after Petrofac re-assigned their partially earned 10% interest in the Permit to MEO. MEO submitted its acreage renewal application for the permit during the Dec quarter 2009. This renewal is for 5 years from February 2010 and comprises a 3 year firm and 2 year optional work program.

This permit includes the gas discoveries at Heron North and Blackwood where 'there may be 1700 Bcf of raw recoverable gas'.

Additional technical work in NT/P68 has identified the potential for up to a 300m gross gas column at Heron North, a potential 130sq km closure at Heron South and a Blackwood East prospect with an area extent more than four times that of the Blackwood discovery.

Again this permit, although part of the stranded gas area of the Timor Sea/Bonaparte Basin, must be of value to the company especially because of:

The Tassie Shoal Methanol Project (TSMP) and the Timor Sea LNG Project (TSLNG).

This is the flagship of MEO and the ultimate goal of the company. The concept is covered in the MEO releases and I did a brief summary Post #: 4917268 here.

The TSMP received gvnmt approval in 2001 and the TSLNG Project in 2004.

Essentially the first methanol plant proposed for the TSMP requires 1400Bcf raw gas to produce 1.75Mtpa for 20 years of operation and Blackwood may have 1700Bcf recoverable gas (see MEO release 14 Mar 2008 here).

MEO have gvnmt approval to operate two such Methanol plants (and one LNG plant) at Tassie Shoals until 2052.

Although the cost of these projects is in the billions, MEO have the team already in place to get them off the ground. All they need is a farminee/JV for NT/P68 to develop the gas fields and get the projects running.

The work already done to this end must be of value to MEO SHs.

So back to the second part of your question amcre:
'how the current SP will affect the post SP announcement'

Being subjective this question is a little harder to answer but I'll do my best:

MEO has been in a holding pattern since July 15, really, when new seismic data regarding the WA-360-P permit was released and the data room opened to companies interested in farming into the prospect. The SP at that time was 22.5c.

Since then a number of deadlines were set, and not met. This resulted in MEO being open to market influences from all quarters with an upward trend to a high of 82.5c on 23 Sep down to a low of 32.5c today.

MEO management can partly be blamed for the initial rise and disappointment but since a time just prior to the AGM 18 Nov the delay can be attributed to plays by the new farminee.

Initially this was when the farminee was to be announced, but the new partner delayed the confirmation by a month until their next board meeting. This resulted in MEO having an Insto CR setting the SP of MEO at 45c. This was to ensure the funds to meet the Dec 31 deadline for a commitment to drill Artemis themselves if necessary.

For some reason the SP has been capped at 45c since then apart from a false start to 53c on 6 Jan leading to a speeding ticket. From there it settled back into the 45c pattern until joining in the market correction over the past week, which has been the bane of most stocks. Over the period, since July, astute traders have been able to cash in on MEO.

MEO is held mainly by retail investors. Unlike institutions, who tend to leave their larger placements for longer periods, retail traders tend to play the field a lot more, and get a lot more nervous, hence the rollercoaster ride. Their nervousness and possible inexperience leaves them as easy prey to the market sharks unfortunately.

Along with this MEO is still relatively unknown. This has been stated often by posters. There has not been an announcement to create interest in the company, either positive or negative, for some time now. This has left MEO, whilst still active, treading water with nowhere to go until the present negotiations are sorted out and published.

The great fundamentals are still there but all it needs is the announcement of the new partner and the details of the JV to be announced.

Then the SP must rise post announcement. To what extent, who knows? In these hard times I will be looking to at least $1 which is still below the un-risked value of Artemis alone but only the market can realise the true value of any public company to a shareholder.

If I was a TA then I would use the all time low of MEO as .062c (10 Mar 2009) and the high of 1.62 (Jan 2008) then the 50% fib is .84 and the 61.8% fib is 1.025.

If the major P&E Company is as well known as we believe, MEO will become the talk of the town. Everyone will want to come on board and our raft may indeed turn into a cruise ship.

There will be some who have been waiting patiently for some time now and will want to cash in some or all their profits. This is normal so quite a few trades will take place on the first couple of days. Present holders may take advantage of the swings to take profits and/or accumulate. The rollercoaster will prevail.

What the price will end up as will depend on the market's judgement of the prestige of the new partner and the value of the deal MEO manages to negotiate for the SHs.

The TAs will reset their charts to the new event horizon, the FAs will go over the details and value of the deal until leading up to the spud of A#1, when it will all start again ....

... and us MEOmites will keep on posting in this forum.

But this is only my opinion as the future is not ours to hold. Please take it all with a pinch of salt and check things out for yourself.

This post is another lengthy one, but don't blame me - it was amcre who asked to hear my thoughts:>))