holding up well, page-44

You can plot the intra-day fall in BML with the rise in EDE...large lines simply chasing the next runner and jumping from one stock to the other.

Each time EDE hit an intra-day breakout level, selling would hit BML, with similar volumes jumping straight across to EDE.

BML did just fine today in my view...the VWAP is the key and as you say it was higher than yesterday...it signals buyers and sellers were evenly matched, in spite of the volatility induced outer trading ranges.

The selling through 12c and subsequent confirmation of support, was perhaps the best thing to come from the session...and in many ways, the exodus from BML to EDE, simply expedited the whole process of spike, retrace, recovery...and re-launch.

What may have taken a week or so, will now likely happen much quicker.

I added to my position today...was lucky to do so at 12.5c, after just missing a line at 12c...this will be one of the few stocks I hold where such daily moves will not bother me.

Look at the swings in SFR, RXM, etc in the days following their respective discoveries...when the market had no idea of the implications of their initial announcements...and whilst further information is awaited and more drilling anticipated from BML, as it was from those other stocks, we too can expect to see similar swings from time to time...when everyone forgets the bigger picture for the sake of the trading game.

I love the comments from some...

"She is too expensive at 16c, because we don't know what they have"

However at 12c...

"I think this is worth a punt at 12c, because we don't know what they have"

Or comments to this effect...all clearly driven by a trading focus.

Whilst technical influence may dictate such entry/exit points...this has absolutely nothing to do with what may...or may not...lie beneath the ground here.

Now...in relation to comparisons to SFR, a company with a market cap close to $400m. The comparisons are real, albeit not likely to see such a significant rerating in market cap terms in my view...unless of course BML hit something better than they have to date.

This of course is the whole point of getting in early...before the story is obvious.

Future drilling will be the key to value here...as it was with the other stocks...and will be the main driver of this rerating story. If they keep getting similar results, as good as they are, the narrow nature thereof will suggest a low toinnage, but extemely high grade project...nice but no cigare. In this scenario they may well be only looking at a potential market cap in the $50m range...lol...which is still a 50c stock based on shares on issue.

If however they hit wider/better results in the next lot of drilling, or if the bonanza hit is simply the tip of the iceberg for a larger orebody at depth...then you can expect another significant upgrade rerating event to take place.

The best thing about such shows is we can choose to participate or not...today, tickets are just 13.5c...so we all have a choice.

Regardless, eventual value will be dictated by critical mass...in short they need tonnes and grade...if they can jag it, watch as another SFR story unfolds, if not, it will just fade away.

Of note, SFR are looking at deep hits...nothing of substance really starts at Doolgunna until you are below 100m and mostly 150m or more for the really good stuff. SFRs main bonanza zone looks to be about 350m long, pinching off at each end, and open at depth in some places and closed off in others...and as I said, starts at considerable depth. It is a nice, relatively low tonnage, but high grade resource. In spite of this, and fact it will be an underground operation, the market has put a $400m+ price tag on their market cap at this early stage...clearly, some upside is being applied to the wider project potential as a whole.

Looking at BML, at this stage they have nothing like SFR's tonnes, nor width of orebody, but similarly will have to go underground at this stage regardless of the shallow hit...a plus however is the fact that at 4m or so, they have a perfect mining width to work...they would not want to go any narrower. None the less, they will need to find decent hits with wider zones if they are to add significant value here.

Of interest might be the following sections...the first from SFRs Doolgunna project and the second my basic spacial interp of the bonanza hit...


SFRs Doolgunna project

As you can see, the above drill hole (circled), hit only a narrow zone of copper, but the hole drilled behind it hit a much wider zone. Interestingly, the hole drilled behind both of them appears to have hit nothing where expected.

Any drilling at all in the top 100m would likely have hit nothing!

Could we be looking at a similar scenario with MBL?


BMLs 4900N section, as plotted from released data.

MBL's hit is shallow...and so far, a one off in terms of bonanza copper...they key for me however is that we have drilling with good grade some 300m north and south of the above bonanza hit...this means we probably have a structure running through all these zones, probably associated with a dolerite intrusion which is driving the copper...and a structure that to date has only been tested above 60m. Importantly, they have hit primary ore here (sulphides), whereas the other holes all hit secondary or oxide ore (malachite, etc).

The point of all this being, who knows what lies beneath?

The key, and possible next step for BML, is to explore at depth in my view...with an eye to the shallows for a clue to possible strike and extent. I would assume an expanded program to trace the bonanza hit along strike and at depth, initially with the RC's (250-300m depth)...and possibly drill a few diamond cores to test this structure at sub 250m depth.

They have copper at surface, narrow hits north and south suggesting up to an 800m strike, significant polymetalic regional influence west...and now they have a central hit of bonanza grade, albeit it narrow, primary copper sulphides.

Importantly, so far, all of the drilling in the area appears to be shallow.

Time for some deep dimaond drilling...say behind ACRC0003...and perhaps another 100m north and south of it...along strike...to see what is driving the copper up to surface. The surface geochem (Cu-in-soil) hjas to have come from somewhere.

Many ways to skin a cat though...and I am sure BMLs geos will have their own ideas on what and where...so perhaps we should give them credit for finding what they have, and afford them the respect of patience whilst they go about the business of working this one out?

Such things take time...SFR and RXM both waited for additional results to really see their stock rise.
Of interest, RXM immediately carried a market cap in the $25-30m range based on what appeared to be one hole drilled down dip and an orebody with a true width of about 3-10m in all but one hole. At that stage it looked a bit average, however subsequent drilling improved this considerably, taking their market cap with it as high as $250m at one stage. Importantly, the market was happy to trade in the $25-50m market cap range in the initial days, whilst the Company went about finding out what they had.

Interestingly, SFR had about the same number of shares on issue as BML and more or less jumped straight above a $50m market cap...and never really looked back. SFR's initial results were excellent, but appeared to be drilled down dip as they were all vertical holes bar one, suggesting the actual true width may well have ben much less than those stated. Once again however, subsequent drilling results painted a clearer picture and whilst the actual orebody width was in fact significantly less, the consistently high grade results confirmed they had something of note.

This brings us back to BML...

I will emphasis it is very early days...and one hole does not make a mine, but all mines start with a hole! To add significant value here, they will need to understand what is going on...how the Maibele Nickel discovery relates...and what exactly the Cu in soil geochem is telling them. With some luck...they may well luck on to a decent find...especially at depth, beneath the bonanza hit.

This bonanza hit may well be all there is though...ACRA0003 may have simply hit a pod of copper sulphides (chalcopyrite or chalcocite), in a localised dilation zone, at what looks like the intersection of two structures...but then again, they may have hit the top of an iceberg.

This is the excitement of speculating in the junior resources market...fortunes made and lost!

On this issue, I have to laugh at all the negative arguments offered on days like today...it mirrors all stocks that rise and fall, good and bad alike...which I guess is why the poor old mug retailers are sometimes left scratching their heads at what went on. Very few comments on here about the actual discovery though, just references to directors, pump and dump examples, traders, posters, charts, etc, etc...

This is a re-rating scenario...whichever way you look at it...add a bit of trader noise for good measure and we know we can expect the unexpected.

But, will the rerating hold...push it higher...lower...and if so, what value is fair value?

Traders will do what traders will do...and today was clearly impacted by the DOW and other stocks offering quick attractions, but fundamentally, as re-ratings go, with drilling this month, which hopefully will tell the tail...we really do not have all that long to wait.

Bigger picture stuff here...but no guarantees of course.

Cheers!